Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 55.0¢
- Implied chance
- 55.0%
- Return if right
- 81.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 181.8 shares at 55.0¢ each.
YES wins: $181.82 back, a profit of $81.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $83.49.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 46.0¢
- Implied chance
- 46.0%
- Return if right
- 117.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 217.4 shares at 46.0¢ each.
NO wins: $217.39 back, a profit of $117.39. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.39 of that profit. Without it you would make $119.78.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 04:09 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Labour seeking ‘deeper relationship’ with EU under Burnham, new minister saysThe Guardian · 1d ago
- New Zealand Slaps New Sanctions Against Russia After US MoveBloomberg · 3d ago
- US labour market sheds jobs in July as labour force participation slumpsAl Jazeera · 3d ago
- UK politics: Labour minister denies Burnham ‘too blokey’ – as it happenedThe Guardian · 3d ago
- State representative defeats former House Republican in primary for Rose's open seat in TennesseeThe Hill · 4d ago
- Trump-linked law firm to get $150 million no-bid contract to represent migrant childrenThe Washington Post · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand Hous…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
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