Will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin on August 8 or earlier?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.1¢
- Implied chance
- 0.1%
- Return if right
- 99900.0%
- Spread cost
- n/a
If you put in $100
You get 100000.0 shares at 0.1¢ each.
YES wins: $100000.00 back, a profit of $99900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 13, 11:40 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘American Horror Story: 13’ Teaser Brings Back Jessica Lange and Rubber Man as FX Sets Release Dates for 13 Half-Hour EpisodesVariety · 32m ago
- ‘Heated Rivalry’ Actor Dylan Walsh ‘in Trouble’ After Saying on Cameo That 12 New Episodes Are Being Shot: I’m ‘Stepping Away’ From the PlatformVariety · 2h ago
- Lioness season 3 episode 2 opening scene leaves fans stunned with its intensity on Paramount+Fox News · 3d ago
- Bitcoin's BIP-110 episode is free-market capitalism in purest formCoinDesk · 3d ago
- Navy's Blue Angels were the stars of the Seattle Seahawks' first 'Hard Knocks' episode: 'America!'Fox News · 8d ago
- Australia warns H5N1 likely to spread after first mass mortality episodeAl Jazeera · 10d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin on August 8 or earlier?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes." Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes. If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs. The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Source: https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages