Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?

• First Thing: New Fed chair Kevin Warsh faces early test amid bond market worriesThe Guardian · 2d ago
• One Sentence in the Fed Meeting Minutes Is Nightmare Fuel for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the Stock MarketYahoo Finance · 2d ago
• Trump made a multimillion-dollar bond bet — and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could shape the outcome. What investors can learnYahoo Finance · 3d ago
• The U.S. Treasury's Bond Market Intervention Is a Nightmare Scenario for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMCYahoo Finance · 4d ago
• Bond traders are testing Kevin Warsh: The Fed chair will heed—but not be ruled by—them, says an economist who spent years sitting next to himYahoo Finance · 7d ago
• BofA Survey Shows Record Expectations for ‘No Landing’ as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Preps for Jackson Hole DebutYahoo Finance · 7d ago

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026? The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.