Will Kennedy Center demolition be announced by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.0¢
- Implied chance
- 8.0%
- Return if right
- 1150.0%
- Spread cost
- 27%
If you put in $100
You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $416.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $1566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 35%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.38.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 23, 09:47 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Bill Clinton knocks Trump over arch, Kennedy Center movesThe Hill · 2d ago
- The Kennedy Center: Fix it, don’t tear it downThe Hill · 2d ago
- Trump floods the zone with press ban, triumphal arch, Kennedy CenterThe Hill · 2d ago
- How President Trump Broke the Kennedy CenterThe New York Times · 4d ago
- Trump Reignites Kennedy Center FightBloomberg · 4d ago
- Demonstrators in US form human chain to protest Kennedy Center closure voteAl Jazeera · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Kennedy Center demolition be announced by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, the Kennedy Center (acting through its Board of Trustees or leadership), or a U.S. federal agency with authority over the Kennedy Center site, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces that it plans to demolish the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "demolish" means the physical destruction, razing, or tearing down of all or a structurally substantial portion of the existing Kennedy Center building. Demolition does not include interior renovation, restoration, reconfiguration, seating or fixture replacement, cosmetic changes, façade or signage changes (including the addition of any name to the building), closure of the venue, or repair work, however extensive. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the present commencement of demolition, previously-unannounced prior commencement of demolition, or a definitive decision to commence demolition in present or future. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe possible demolition, without clearly communicating that demolition has commenced or will commence, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify as official announcements: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the parties listed above; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that demolition will be announced or carried out; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional demolition rather than announcing a present and decided commencement. This includes statements that the building "will need to be," "may be," or "will be required to be" taken down absent some other outcome (such as approval of renovations). Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, halted, enjoined, or whether demolition is ever actually carried out. Resolution will be based on official information from the parties listed above or their authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.