Will Karen Guerreiro win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 85.0¢
- Implied chance
- 85.0%
- Return if right
- 17.6%
- Spread cost
- 85%
If you put in $100
You get 117.6 shares at 85.0¢ each.
YES wins: $117.65 back, a profit of $17.65. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $102.13 of that profit. Without it you would make $119.78.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.0¢
- Implied chance
- 94.0%
- Return if right
- 6.4%
- Spread cost
- 92%
If you put in $100
You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.
NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $77.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $83.49.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Karen Guerreiro46.0%
- Cristina Reis Graeml46.5%
- Alexandre Curi46.5%
- Gleisi46.0%
- Joaquim do MLB7.5%
- Deltan Dallagnol43.5%
Latest: Aug 17, 05:00 PM3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
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How this market resolves
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Other outcomes in Paraná Senate Election: 1st Place
- Will Joaquim do MLB win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?
- Will Cristina Reis Graeml win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?
- Will Gleisi win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?
- Will Alexandre Curi win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?
- Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?
- Will Filipe Barros win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?
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