Will Julieta Ramírez Padilla win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?

Q: Will Julieta Ramírez Padilla win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 81%. A YES share costs 80.8¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 23.8% over 1.3y.

Baja California Governor Election Winner$14k liquidity$13k volumecloses 1.3y

MexicoPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 80.8¢
Implied chance: 80.8%
Return if right: 23.8%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 123.8 shares at 80.8¢ each.

YES wins: $123.76 back, a profit of $23.76. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $27.39.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 23.8¢
Implied chance: 23.8%
Return if right: 320.2%
Spread cost: 12%

If you put in $100

You get 420.2 shares at 23.8¢ each.

NO wins: $420.17 back, a profit of $320.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $44.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $365.12.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 25, 04:08 AM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.