Will Juan Roberto Muñoz Pinto win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?

Q: Will Juan Roberto Muñoz Pinto win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?

Prediction markets currently price this at 36%. A YES share costs 36.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 177.8% over 1.7mo.

Arequipa Mayoral Election Winner$518 liquidity$47 volumecloses 1.7mo

PeruPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 36.0¢
Implied chance: 36.0%
Return if right: 177.8%
Spread cost: 53%

If you put in $100

You get 277.8 shares at 36.0¢ each.

YES wins: $277.78 back, a profit of $177.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $198.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $376.19.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 94.0¢
Implied chance: 94.0%
Return if right: 6.4%
Spread cost: 76%

If you put in $100

You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.

NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $20.20 of that profit. Without it you would make $26.58.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 12, 11:35 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The 2026 Arequipa, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Provincial Municipality of Arequipa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If this election is annulled or the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).