Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Q: Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Prediction markets currently price this at 6%. A YES share costs 6.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1487.3% over 2.1y.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028$283k liquidity$10.0M volumecloses 2.1y

United StatesElectionsPoliticsUS ElectionWorld ElectionsEarn 4%

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 6.3¢
Implied chance: 6.3%
Return if right: 1487.3%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 1587.3 shares at 6.3¢ each.

YES wins: $1587.30 back, a profit of $1487.30. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $79.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $1566.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 94.3¢
Implied chance: 94.3%
Return if right: 6.0%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 106.0 shares at 94.3¢ each.

NO wins: $106.04 back, a profit of $6.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.34 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.38.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Josh Shapiro6.1%

Latest: Sep 21, 11:19 PM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomin…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.