Will Jorge Martinez be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

Q: Will Jorge Martinez be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

Prediction markets currently price this at 11%. A YES share costs 11.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 809.1% over 8d.

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner$10k liquidity$5k volumecloses 8d

primary electionsHouse PrimaryRepublican PrimaryFlorida PrimaryAugust 18 PrimariesUS Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 11.0¢
Implied chance: 11.0%
Return if right: 809.1%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.

YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $38.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $847.87.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 89.9¢
Implied chance: 89.9%
Return if right: 11.2%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 111.2 shares at 89.9¢ each.

NO wins: $111.23 back, a profit of $11.23. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.79.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 06:06 PM3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Jorge Martinez be the Republican nominee for FL-09?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.