Will Jérôme Guedj finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

Q: Will Jérôme Guedj finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

Prediction markets currently price this at 19%. A YES share costs 18.5¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 440.5% over 17d.

French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place$622 liquidity$248 volumecloses 17d

FrancePoliticsElectionssocialist partyGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 18.5¢
Implied chance: 18.5%
Return if right: 440.5%
Spread cost: 54%

If you put in $100

You get 540.5 shares at 18.5¢ each.

YES wins: $540.54 back, a profit of $440.54. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $517.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $958.20.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.6¢
Implied chance: 99.6%
Return if right: 0.4%
Spread cost: 96%

If you put in $100

You get 100.4 shares at 99.6¢ each.

NO wins: $100.40 back, a profit of $0.40. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.44.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 24, 03:34 AM

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.