Will Jascha Rohr win the next Oldenburg mayoral election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 30.0¢
- Implied chance
- 30.0%
- Return if right
- 233.3%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 333.3 shares at 30.0¢ each.
YES wins: $333.33 back, a profit of $233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $30.30 of that profit. Without it you would make $263.64.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 75.0¢
- Implied chance
- 75.0%
- Return if right
- 33.3%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 133.3 shares at 75.0¢ each.
NO wins: $133.33 back, a profit of $33.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.60 of that profit. Without it you would make $37.93.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 06:23 PM7 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘Variations on Violence’ Wins Best Film at OldenburgThe Hollywood Reporter · 1d ago
- Survival Tips From Oldenburg’s Resident Provocateur: Edgar PeraThe Hollywood Reporter · 7d ago
- The Oldenburg Film Festival According To: Director Vincent GrashawThe Hollywood Reporter · 8d ago
- Three Years Alone on a Man-Made Island: Inside Oldenburg Opener, ‘Strange Neighbors’The Hollywood Reporter · 8d ago
- Oldenburg Adds Ned Crowley’s ‘Dead Drop’ to Line UpThe Hollywood Reporter · 9d ago
- Oldenburg Adds Ned Crowley’s ‘Dead Drop’ to Line UpThe Hollywood Reporter · 9d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Jascha Rohr win the next Oldenburg mayoral election?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The next Oldenburg mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 13, 2026, to elect the mayor of Oldenburg, Germany (Oberbürgermeister der Stadt Oldenburg). A runoff election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Oldenburg as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Stadt Oldenburg, including its election office and municipal election committee.
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