Will Iván Hernández Díaz win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?

Q: Will Iván Hernández Díaz win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 8%. A YES share costs 8.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1150.0% over 9.9mo.

Guerrero Governor Election Winner$68 liquidity$93 volumecloses 9.9mo

MexicoPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 8.0¢
Implied chance: 8.0%
Return if right: 1150.0%
Spread cost: 39%

If you put in $100

You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.

YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $750.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $1900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.0¢
Implied chance: 98.0%
Return if right: 2.0%
Spread cost: 61%

If you put in $100

You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.

NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.26.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 09:29 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Iván Hernández Díaz win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Elec…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.