Will Ivan Begić win the 2026 Republika Srpska presidential election?

Q: Will Ivan Begić win the 2026 Republika Srpska presidential election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 5%. A YES share costs 5.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1900.0% over 1.4mo.

Republika Srpska Presidential Election$8k liquidity$0 volumecloses 1.4mo

ElectionsMain ElectionGlobal ElectionsBosnia and Herzegovina

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 5.0¢
Implied chance: 5.0%
Return if right: 1900.0%
Spread cost: 40%

If you put in $100

You get 2000.0 shares at 5.0¢ each.

YES wins: $2000.00 back, a profit of $1900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1278.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $3178.69.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.9¢
Implied chance: 98.9%
Return if right: 1.1%
Spread cost: 65%

If you put in $100

You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.

NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.15.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 24, 08:44 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026, including the election of the President and two Vice-Presidents of the political entity of Republika Srpska. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate elected to serve as President of Republika Srpska as a result of this election. A candidate elected as a Vice-President of Republika Srpska will not count. Interim, temporary, or acting Presidents of Republika Srpska will not count. If no such President has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: https://www.izbori.ba/