Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 16.0¢
- Implied chance
- 16.0%
- Return if right
- 525.0%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 625.0 shares at 16.0¢ each.
YES wins: $625.00 back, a profit of $525.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $89.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $614.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 88.0¢
- Implied chance
- 88.0%
- Return if right
- 13.6%
- Spread cost
- 16%
If you put in $100
You get 113.6 shares at 88.0¢ each.
NO wins: $113.64 back, a profit of $13.64. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.64 of that profit. Without it you would make $16.28.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Itamar Ben Gvir12.0%
- No Next Minister by Feb 2837.5%
- Ofer Winter13.5%
- Gideon Sa’ar2.8%
- Yossi Cohen3.8%
- Amir Ohana10.5%
Latest: Oct 5, 06:44 AM3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israeli ambassador to Australia says he hopes for return to ‘traditional friendship’ on October 7 anniversary eveThe Guardian · 20m ago
- Israel prepared for fighter jets to shoot down FlyDubai flight if necessary, Israeli sources sayCBS News · 8h ago
- Israeli forces kill one, injure several in occupied West BankAl Jazeera · 11h ago
- Freed Syrians recount torture in Israeli detention centreAl Jazeera · 11h ago
- UK ‘threatens to expel 27 Israeli diplomats’ over Jerusalem consulateAl Jazeera · 13h ago
- UK threatens to expel Israeli diplomats over planned East Jerusalem consulate closureThe Guardian · 13h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of Nationa…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?
- Will Matan Kahana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- Will Elazar Stern be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- Will Ofer Winter be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- Will Yossi Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- Will Amir Ohana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?
- Will Avi Dichter be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?