Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.0¢
- Implied chance
- 6.0%
- Return if right
- 1566.7%
- Spread cost
- 18%
If you put in $100
You get 1666.7 shares at 6.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1666.67 back, a profit of $1566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $333.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.26.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 12, 01:48 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- The Israeli settlers behind West Bank conflict with Palestinians | 60 MinutesCBS News · 5h ago
- Some Israeli settlers use sheep to push Palestinians from West Bank homesCBS News · 5h ago
- An Israeli Election Like No OtherThe New York Times · 7h ago
- Two killed near Israeli-occupied area in south LebanonAl Jazeera · 7h ago
- Jerusalem Daily: Panicked Palestinians flee Israeli attacks on GazaAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- Creating a ghost town: Lives in limbo behind Israeli gates and checkpointsAl Jazeera · 14h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.