Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.5¢
- Implied chance
- 0.5%
- Return if right
- 19900.0%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 20000.0 shares at 0.5¢ each.
YES wins: $20000.00 back, a profit of $19900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8571.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $28471.43.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.8¢
- Implied chance
- 99.8%
- Return if right
- 0.2%
- Spread cost
- 43%
If you put in $100
You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.
NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.35.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 05:42 PM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘We have no one’: Palestinians react to Israel’s rejection of Gaza planAl Jazeera · 1h ago
- Anas al-Sharif: One year on from Israel’s killing of Al Jazeera reporterAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Anguished locals watch as Israel demolishes homes in southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 8h ago
- Israel confirms death of Palestinian detainee, nearly two years lateAl Jazeera · 15h ago
- Netanyahu says Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza peace planDeutsche Welle · 19h ago
- Hasan Piker stands by 'intentionally provocative' claims that Hamas is 'a thousand times better' than IsraelFox News · 20h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
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- Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?