Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.3¢
- Implied chance
- 4.3%
- Return if right
- 2225.6%
- Spread cost
- 28%
If you put in $100
You get 2325.6 shares at 4.3¢ each.
YES wins: $2325.58 back, a profit of $2225.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $849.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $3074.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.0¢
- Implied chance
- 98.0%
- Return if right
- 2.0%
- Spread cost
- 37%
If you put in $100
You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.
NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- As conflict in the Middle East intensifies, India’s relationship with Israel deepensThe Guardian · 2h ago
- ‘We have no one’: Palestinians react to Israel’s rejection of Gaza planAl Jazeera · 17h ago
- Anas al-Sharif: One year on from Israel’s killing of Al Jazeera reporterAl Jazeera · 17h ago
- Anguished locals watch as Israel demolishes homes in southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Israel confirms death of Palestinian detainee, nearly two years lateAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Netanyahu says Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza peace planDeutsche Welle · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.