Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.0¢
- Implied chance
- 8.0%
- Return if right
- 1150.0%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $83.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.0¢
- Implied chance
- 93.0%
- Return if right
- 7.5%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.
NO wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘They uprooted it all’: Israel bulldozes Palestinian-owned olive grovesAl Jazeera · 1h ago
- Israel moves to bar both main Arab lists from October electionAl Jazeera · 3h ago
- New York Times Sued by Shareholders Over Anti-Israel BiasThe Hollywood Reporter · 5h ago
- New York Times faces shareholder lawsuit over alleged anti-Israel biasFox News · 7h ago
- New York Times faces shareholder lawsuit over alleged anti-Israel biasFox News · 7h ago
- Netherlands to return to Eurovision as it drops boycott over Israel participationSky News · 10h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Decem…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.