Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 90.6¢
- Implied chance
- 90.6%
- Return if right
- 10.4%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 110.4 shares at 90.6¢ each.
YES wins: $110.38 back, a profit of $10.38. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.17 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 12.9¢
- Implied chance
- 12.9%
- Return if right
- 675.2%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 775.2 shares at 12.9¢ each.
NO wins: $775.19 back, a profit of $675.19. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $121.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $796.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘We have no one’: Palestinians react to Israel’s rejection of Gaza planAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Anas al-Sharif: One year on from Israel’s killing of Al Jazeera reporterAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Anguished locals watch as Israel demolishes homes in southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- Israel confirms death of Palestinian detainee, nearly two years lateAl Jazeera · 15h ago
- Netanyahu says Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza peace planDeutsche Welle · 19h ago
- Hasan Piker stands by 'intentionally provocative' claims that Hamas is 'a thousand times better' than IsraelFox News · 20h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Israel election happen as scheduled?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026. For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement). Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.