Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 51.0 in August?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.9¢
- Implied chance
- 0.9%
- Return if right
- 11011.1%
- Spread cost
- 28%
If you put in $100
You get 11111.1 shares at 0.9¢ each.
YES wins: $11111.11 back, a profit of $11011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4273.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $15284.62.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.6¢
- Implied chance
- 99.6%
- Return if right
- 0.4%
- Spread cost
- 39%
If you put in $100
You get 100.4 shares at 99.6¢ each.
NO wins: $100.40 back, a profit of $0.40. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.65.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 11, 10:27 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
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How this market resolves
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Other outcomes in ISM Manufacturing PMI - August 2026
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August?
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in August?
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in August?
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in August?
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 58.0 and 58.9 in August?
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 59.0 in August?
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in August?
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?