Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Q: Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 95%. A YES share costs 95.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 4.9% over 3.0mo.

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?$3k liquidity$22k volumecloses 3.0mo

UFCSportsmma

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 95.3¢
Implied chance: 95.3%
Return if right: 4.9%
Spread cost: 17%

If you put in $100

You get 104.9 shares at 95.3¢ each.

YES wins: $104.93 back, a profit of $4.93. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.93.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 6.5¢
Implied chance: 6.5%
Return if right: 1438.5%
Spread cost: 15%

If you put in $100

You get 1538.5 shares at 6.5¢ each.

NO wins: $1538.46 back, a profit of $1438.46. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $247.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $1685.71.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Islam Makhachev94.2%

Latest: Oct 2, 04:07 PM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).