Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 11.5¢
- Implied chance
- 11.5%
- Return if right
- 769.6%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 869.6 shares at 11.5¢ each.
YES wins: $869.57 back, a profit of $769.57. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $91.97 of that profit. Without it you would make $861.54.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 90.7¢
- Implied chance
- 90.7%
- Return if right
- 10.3%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 110.3 shares at 90.7¢ each.
NO wins: $110.25 back, a profit of $10.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.61.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.