Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.2¢
- Implied chance
- 2.2%
- Return if right
- 4445.5%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 4545.5 shares at 2.2¢ each.
YES wins: $4545.45 back, a profit of $4445.45. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $105.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $4551.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.9¢
- Implied chance
- 97.9%
- Return if right
- 2.1%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 102.1 shares at 97.9¢ each.
NO wins: $102.15 back, a profit of $2.15. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.20.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Iran legalize gay marriage?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law. Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline. The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify. Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.