Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.0¢
- Implied chance
- 4.0%
- Return if right
- 2400.0%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 2500.0 shares at 4.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2500.00 back, a profit of $2400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $166.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $2566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.5¢
- Implied chance
- 96.5%
- Return if right
- 3.6%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 103.6 shares at 96.5¢ each.
NO wins: $103.63 back, a profit of $3.63. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.27 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.90.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 07:23 PM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Romania Extends Reactor Output by Nine Days After Danube BlastsBloomberg · 1d ago
- Romania, Hungary, France... Europe's nuclear power plants tested by heatwaveFrance 24 · 6d ago
- Dry Danube River threatens nuclear power in Romania, HungaryDeutsche Welle · 7d ago
- Romania blasts rock to divert water from drought-hit Danube to nuclear reactorThe Guardian · 7d ago
- South-eastern Europe faces heatwave energy crunch as Romania detonates Danube rock to increase water flow – as it happenedThe Guardian · 7d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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