Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.9¢
- Implied chance
- 4.9%
- Return if right
- 1940.8%
- Spread cost
- 44%
If you put in $100
You get 2040.8 shares at 4.9¢ each.
YES wins: $2040.82 back, a profit of $1940.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1530.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $3471.43.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.3¢
- Implied chance
- 99.3%
- Return if right
- 0.7%
- Spread cost
- 76%
If you put in $100
You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.
NO wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.18 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Iotova 40%+2.9%
- Iotova 20-30%40.5%
- Iotova 10-20%32.5%
- Iotova <10%11.0%
- Gyurov 10-20%5.1%
- Iotova 30-40%4.9%
Latest: Oct 5, 04:14 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
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How this market resolves
The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
- Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%?
- Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?
- Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
- Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?
- Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?
- Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?
- Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
- Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?