Will Iain Black win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 27.7¢
- Implied chance
- 27.7%
- Return if right
- 261.0%
- Spread cost
- 51%
If you put in $100
You get 361.0 shares at 27.7¢ each.
YES wins: $361.01 back, a profit of $261.01. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $275.93 of that profit. Without it you would make $536.94.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.3¢
- Implied chance
- 96.3%
- Return if right
- 3.8%
- Spread cost
- 79%
If you put in $100
You get 103.8 shares at 96.3¢ each.
NO wins: $103.84 back, a profit of $3.84. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $14.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $18.62.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 2, 04:54 PM2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Iain Black win the next Conservative Party of British C…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A leadership election for the Conservative Party of British Columbia is expected following the resignation of Kerry-Lynne Findlay as party leader on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.
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