Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of September 12?

Q: Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of September 12?

Prediction markets currently price this at 2%. A YES share costs 2.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 4900.0% over 10d.

Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of September 12$1k liquidity$51 volumecloses 10d

songMusicalbumCulturebillboardCelebrities

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 2.0¢
Implied chance: 2.0%
Return if right: 4900.0%
Spread cost: 43%

If you put in $100

You get 5000.0 shares at 2.0¢ each.

YES wins: $5000.00 back, a profit of $4900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3695.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $8595.65.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 74%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.86 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 30, 01:32 AM2 further outcomes not shown

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How this market resolves

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of September 12, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.