Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?

Taichung Mayor Election Winner$59 liquidity$103 volumecloses 10.5mo
TaiwanPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections
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Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY YES

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Cost
23.0¢
Implied chance
23.0%
Return if right
334.8%
Spread cost
50%

If you put in $100

You get 434.8 shares at 23.0¢ each.

YES wins: $434.78 back, a profit of $334.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $334.45 of that profit. Without it you would make $669.23.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

Buy NO on Polymarket

BUY NO

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We keep it in one place with the price you saw, and email you when it settles or moves sharply. It is free, and the screener stays open to everyone either way.

Cost
97.0¢
Implied chance
97.0%
Return if right
3.1%
Spread cost
79%

If you put in $100

You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.

NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $11.85 of that profit. Without it you would make $14.94.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

0%25%50%75%100%14%77%6%Aug 14Aug 14

Latest: Aug 14, 07:41 PM

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taichung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

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