Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 10.0¢
- Implied chance
- 10.0%
- Return if right
- 900.0%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 1000.0 shares at 10.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1000.00 back, a profit of $900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $52.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $952.63.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 91.0¢
- Implied chance
- 91.0%
- Return if right
- 9.9%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 109.9 shares at 91.0¢ each.
NO wins: $109.89 back, a profit of $9.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.50.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Iran's 'new Hezbollah:' How powerful are the Houthis now?Deutsche Welle · 6d ago
- 'Stalemate' in Lebanon: Hezbollah justifies weapons, citing Israeli occupation and ongoing attacksFrance 24 · 7d ago
- Lebanon: Tremor recorded as Israel says destroyed key Hezbollah tunnelsFrance 24 · 13d ago
- Israel Destroys Underground Hezbollah Base in Southern LebanonThe New York Times · 13d ago
- Israel says it has destroyed major underground Hezbollah baseBBC News · 13d ago
- Israel says destroys Hezbollah tunnels as explosions triggers tremorFrance 24 · 13d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.