Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by December 31?

Q: Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by December 31?

Prediction markets currently price this at 56%. A YES share costs 56.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 78.6% over 4.3mo.

Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by...?$478 liquidity$2k volumecloses 4.3mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 56.0¢
Implied chance: 56.0%
Return if right: 78.6%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 178.6 shares at 56.0¢ each.

YES wins: $178.57 back, a profit of $78.57. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.34 of that profit. Without it you would make $86.92.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 49.0¢
Implied chance: 49.0%
Return if right: 104.1%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 204.1 shares at 49.0¢ each.

NO wins: $204.08 back, a profit of $104.08. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.97 of that profit. Without it you would make $115.05.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 22, 03:11 AM

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by Decem…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Heidi Overton is confirmed as Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Heidi Overton's nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.