Will Grüne win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 70.0¢
- Implied chance
- 70.0%
- Return if right
- 42.9%
- Spread cost
- 59%
If you put in $100
You get 142.9 shares at 70.0¢ each.
YES wins: $142.86 back, a profit of $42.86. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $61.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $104.08.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 72.0¢
- Implied chance
- 72.0%
- Return if right
- 38.9%
- Spread cost
- 60%
If you put in $100
You get 138.9 shares at 72.0¢ each.
NO wins: $138.89 back, a profit of $38.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $57.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $96.08.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 15, 07:58 PM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Germany: Berlin techno fans pause for Pride attack victimsDeutsche Welle · 12h ago
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- ‘Babylon Berlin’ Going Out With a Bang, and A Warning for DemocracyThe Hollywood Reporter · 10d ago
- Hundreds of thousands attend Pride events in UK and mainland Europe after deadly Berlin attackSky News · 14d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Grüne win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state election…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Grüne party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Other outcomes in Berlin State Elections: Grüne # of seats?
- Will Grüne win 40-44 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- Will Grüne win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- Will Grüne win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- Will Grüne win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- Will Grüne win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- Will Grüne win 45 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?