Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 72.0¢
- Implied chance
- 72.0%
- Return if right
- 38.9%
- Spread cost
- 63%
If you put in $100
You get 138.9 shares at 72.0¢ each.
YES wins: $138.89 back, a profit of $38.89. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $65.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $104.08.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 74.0¢
- Implied chance
- 74.0%
- Return if right
- 35.1%
- Spread cost
- 63%
If you put in $100
You get 135.1 shares at 74.0¢ each.
NO wins: $135.14 back, a profit of $35.14. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $60.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $96.08.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 16, 07:19 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify. Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.