Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.7¢
- Implied chance
- 4.7%
- Return if right
- 2027.7%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 2127.7 shares at 4.7¢ each.
YES wins: $2127.66 back, a profit of $2027.66. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $46.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $2073.91.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.5¢
- Implied chance
- 95.5%
- Return if right
- 4.7%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 104.7 shares at 95.5¢ each.
NO wins: $104.71 back, a profit of $4.71. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Tensions in the Arctic: Greenland issues sharp rebuke to Trump-linked oil companyFrance 24 · 57m ago
- Greenland issues warning against US oil drilling on its territoryFrance 24 · 9h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.