Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?

Q: Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 19%. A YES share costs 19.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 426.3% over 2.6mo.

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?$2k liquidity$65 volumecloses 2.6mo

OilIranNavalHormuzUS-IranGeopolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 19.0¢
Implied chance: 19.0%
Return if right: 426.3%
Spread cost: 48%

If you put in $100

You get 526.3 shares at 19.0¢ each.

YES wins: $526.32 back, a profit of $426.32. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $391.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $817.43.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 97.2¢
Implied chance: 97.2%
Return if right: 2.9%
Spread cost: 76%

If you put in $100

You get 102.9 shares at 97.2¢ each.

NO wins: $102.88 back, a profit of $2.88. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.23.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Oct 12, 10:24 PM2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.