Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 89.0¢
- Implied chance
- 89.0%
- Return if right
- 12.4%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.
YES wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.93 of that profit. Without it you would make $14.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 14.0¢
- Implied chance
- 14.0%
- Return if right
- 614.3%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 714.3 shares at 14.0¢ each.
NO wins: $714.29 back, a profit of $614.29. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $85.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $700.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Senate elections are scheduled to be held in France on September 27, 2026. The newly constituted Senate will convene following these elections to elect its President. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gérard Larcher is reelected as President of the Senate (Président du Sénat) following the 2026 French Senate elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count for resolution, Gérard Larcher must be formally elected as President of the Senate following the 2026 French Senate elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such President is elected by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Senate (Sénat) (senat.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.