Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
This market's closing date is missing or already in the past (source: endDateIso). Any yield figure below is derived from that date and should not be trusted.
BUY YES
- Cost
- 52.0¢
- Implied chance
- 52.0%
- Return if right
- 92.3%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 192.3 shares at 52.0¢ each.
YES wins: $192.31 back, a profit of $92.31. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $98.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 51.0¢
- Implied chance
- 51.0%
- Return if right
- 96.1%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 196.1 shares at 51.0¢ each.
NO wins: $196.08 back, a profit of $96.08. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $102.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- September 30, 202650.5%
- December 31, 202688.0%
- August 31, 202622.0%
- August 21, 20265.1%
- August 14, 20260.7%
- August 7, 20260.1%
Latest: Aug 10, 08:52 PM
Latest news
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How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.