Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?
This market's closing date is missing or already in the past (source: endDateIso). Any yield figure below is derived from that date and should not be trusted.
This market has closed. No won.
Before it closed the market gave that outcome 98.1%.
There is nothing left to trade here. The prices Polymarket still shows are the settlement, not an opinion about what might happen.
Latest: Aug 10, 07:17 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
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How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.