Will Giedrius Dainys win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.7¢
- Implied chance
- 8.7%
- Return if right
- 1049.4%
- Spread cost
- 48%
If you put in $100
You get 1149.4 shares at 8.7¢ each.
YES wins: $1149.43 back, a profit of $1049.43. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $978.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $2027.66.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.3¢
- Implied chance
- 99.3%
- Return if right
- 0.7%
- Spread cost
- 86%
If you put in $100
You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.
NO wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.93.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Giedrius Dainys4.7%
- Gintautas Kindurys41.0%
- Andrej Šildiajėv14.0%
- Ignotas Adomavičius20.0%
- Viktor Voronin10.4%
- Vladislav Kondratovič24.0%
Latest: Oct 5, 06:41 AM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
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How this market resolves
An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency. If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).
Other outcomes in Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner
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- Will Antanas Šakalis win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?
- Will Ignotas Adomavičius win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?
- Will Vladislav Kondratovič win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?
- Will Gintautas Kindurys win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?
- Will Andrej Šildiajėv win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?
- Will Dalia Štraupaitė win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?
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