Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.7¢
- Implied chance
- 3.7%
- Return if right
- 2602.7%
- Spread cost
- 36%
If you put in $100
You get 2702.7 shares at 3.7¢ each.
YES wins: $2702.70 back, a profit of $2602.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1463.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $4066.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.9¢
- Implied chance
- 98.9%
- Return if right
- 1.1%
- Spread cost
- 55%
If you put in $100
You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.
NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 04:26 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Breaking down Iran's new set of demands over the Strait of HormuzCBS News · 3h ago
- Bitcoin price slip wipes weekend gains as oil surge hits 5% on Hormuz disappointmentCointelegraph · 3h ago
- Strait of Hormuz access remains uncertain as Trump says the U.S. is "semi-negotiating" with IranCBS News · 4h ago
- Germany’s economy has been in a downward spiral for years. Now, a historic drought along the river Rhine, a shipping artery, is making matters worseDeutsche Welle · 4h ago
- Why the Rhine drought is bad news for Germany's recoveryDeutsche Welle · 4h ago
- Oil prices, stocks surge as Hormuz closure drags onAl Jazeera · 4h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Other outcomes in Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?