Will Gavin Newsom be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?

Q: Will Gavin Newsom be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?

Prediction markets currently price this at 20%. A YES share costs 19.7¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 407.6% over 2.4y.

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?$14k liquidity$3k volumecloses 2.4y

PoliticsElectionsPresidentCelebrities

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 19.7¢
Implied chance: 19.7%
Return if right: 407.6%
Spread cost: 1%

If you put in $100

You get 507.6 shares at 19.7¢ each.

YES wins: $507.61 back, a profit of $407.61. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $412.82.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 80.7¢
Implied chance: 80.7%
Return if right: 23.9%
Spread cost: 1%

If you put in $100

You get 123.9 shares at 80.7¢ each.

NO wins: $123.92 back, a profit of $23.92. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $24.22.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 11, 01:20 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.