Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 12.0¢
- Implied chance
- 12.0%
- Return if right
- 733.3%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 833.3 shares at 12.0¢ each.
YES wins: $833.33 back, a profit of $733.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $36.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $769.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 89.0¢
- Implied chance
- 89.0%
- Return if right
- 12.4%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.
NO wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Gavin Newsom's 'hidden climate tax' hitting Americans nationwide, lawmaker warnsFox News · 10h ago
- AOC says she hasn’t ruled out 2028 presidential run, talks about freezing her eggsNBC News · 1d ago
- Ecuador charges ex-minister over presidential candidate assassination caseBBC News · 1d ago
- Trump's firings of federal officials set stage for next presidential power testCBS News · 3d ago
- Russia ramps up disinformation war as French presidential elections draw nearerFrance 24 · 5d ago
- Colombia minister warns of ‘terrorism’ threat at presidential inaugurationAl Jazeera · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.