Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2028?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 67.0¢
- Implied chance
- 67.0%
- Return if right
- 49.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 149.3 shares at 67.0¢ each.
YES wins: $149.25 back, a profit of $49.25. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.26 of that profit. Without it you would make $51.52.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 35.0¢
- Implied chance
- 35.0%
- Return if right
- 185.7%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 285.7 shares at 35.0¢ each.
NO wins: $285.71 back, a profit of $185.71. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $194.12.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 2, 04:01 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Brazil: Who is presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro?France 24 · 1h ago
- Prabowo Taps Tycoons, Religious Leaders as Presidential AdvisersBloomberg · 5h ago
- Everything you need to know about Brazil’s tight presidential raceAl Jazeera · 14h ago
- Gavin Newsom signs Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha into law as new California state holidaysFox News · 16h ago
- RFK Jr. to roll out $10 million challenge to encourage Presidential Fitness Test in schoolsNBC News · 1d ago
- One Issue Hanging Over Brazil’s Presidential Election: Online Gambling and Record-High DebtsThe New York Times · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2028?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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