Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 83.0¢
- Implied chance
- 83.0%
- Return if right
- 20.5%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 120.5 shares at 83.0¢ each.
YES wins: $120.48 back, a profit of $20.48. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $22.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 20.0¢
- Implied chance
- 20.0%
- Return if right
- 400.0%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 500.0 shares at 20.0¢ each.
NO wins: $500.00 back, a profit of $400.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $40.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $440.54.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next I…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market. If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.