Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.3¢
- Implied chance
- 3.3%
- Return if right
- 2930.3%
- Spread cost
- 34%
If you put in $100
You get 3030.3 shares at 3.3¢ each.
YES wins: $3030.30 back, a profit of $2930.30. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1515.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $4445.45.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.9¢
- Implied chance
- 98.9%
- Return if right
- 1.1%
- Spread cost
- 51%
If you put in $100
You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.
NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- François Ruffin2.2%
- Jordan Bardella8.0%
- Bruno Retailleau3.3%
- Dominique de Villepin4.5%
- Éric Zemmour3.0%
- François Hollande9.5%
Latest: Aug 10, 12:44 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Hundreds arrested over French wildfires, but who is to blame?BBC News · 2d ago
- Germans hogging the sunloungers? Poll finds Italians and French are worseThe Guardian · 2d ago
- French officers halted small boats at sea 10 times since springThe Guardian · 3d ago
- World Cup-bound French grateful to medical staffBBC Sport · 3d ago
- French farmers 'heavily impacted' by climate crisis, both psychologically and economically.France 24 · 3d ago
- Two people convicted in relation to death of French streamerBBC News · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Other outcomes in Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
- Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Gabriel Attal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Bruno Retailleau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Dominique de Villepin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Éric Zemmour advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Ségolène Royal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Valérie Pécresse advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Laurent Wauquiez advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Sébastien Lecornu advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Bernard Cazeneuve advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- Will Jean Castex advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?