Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Q: Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 64%. A YES share costs 64.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 56.3% over 6.8mo.

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?$264 liquidity$2k volumecloses 6.8mo

ElectionsGlobal ElectionsFranceFrench ElectionFrench ElectionsInternational Election Props

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 64.0¢
Implied chance: 64.0%
Return if right: 56.3%
Spread cost: 17%

If you put in $100

You get 156.3 shares at 64.0¢ each.

YES wins: $156.25 back, a profit of $56.25. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $11.82 of that profit. Without it you would make $68.07.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 45.0¢
Implied chance: 45.0%
Return if right: 122.2%
Spread cost: 17%

If you put in $100

You get 222.2 shares at 45.0¢ each.

NO wins: $222.22 back, a profit of $122.22. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $24.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $146.91.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 24, 08:09 PM3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.