Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 28%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
YES wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 7.0¢
- Implied chance
- 7.0%
- Return if right
- 1328.6%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 1428.6 shares at 7.0¢ each.
NO wins: $1428.57 back, a profit of $1328.57. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $389.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $1718.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 2, 05:00 PM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- How the Banco Master scandal injected chaos into Brazil’s presidential raceAl Jazeera · 25m ago
- Brazil’s Lula gears up for ‘last dance’ with run for fourth presidential termFrance 24 · 41m ago
- Brazil: The craze for candidate merch ahead of electionsFrance 24 · 2h ago
- Brazil: Who is presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro?France 24 · 2h ago
- Paraguay, a tax and political haven for Brazil's far rightFrance 24 · 4h ago
- Brazil Consular Services Halted by US, Australia Before ElectionBloomberg · 4h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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