Will FDP win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.3¢
- Implied chance
- 0.3%
- Return if right
- 33233.3%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 33333.3 shares at 0.3¢ each.
YES wins: $33333.33 back, a profit of $33233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6666.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $39900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.8¢
- Implied chance
- 99.8%
- Return if right
- 0.2%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.
NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 04:07 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Germany news: Berlin to step up drone security researchDeutsche Welle · 1d ago
- Berlin clubs struggle as drink sales dry up and costs riseDeutsche Welle · 3d ago
- ‘Babylon Berlin’ Going Out With a Bang, and A Warning for DemocracyThe Hollywood Reporter · 5d ago
- Hundreds of thousands attend Pride events in UK and mainland Europe after deadly Berlin attackSky News · 9d ago
- Berlin Pride attack: Are German juvenile courts too lenient?Deutsche Welle · 11d ago
- German Muslims are alarmed by the Islamist terror attack in BerlinDeutsche Welle · 12d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will FDP win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state e…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
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