Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Q: Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 0.8¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 12400.0% over 2.2y.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028$2.2M liquidity$28.9M volumecloses 2.2y

United StatesPoliticsUS ElectionElectionsWorld ElectionsGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.8¢
Implied chance: 0.8%
Return if right: 12400.0%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 12500.0 shares at 0.8¢ each.

YES wins: $12500.00 back, a profit of $12400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $833.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $13233.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.3¢
Implied chance: 99.3%
Return if right: 0.7%
Spread cost: 7%

If you put in $100

You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.

NO wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.76.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Elon Musk0.8%

Latest: Aug 10, 08:23 PM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.