Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.6¢
- Implied chance
- 9.6%
- Return if right
- 941.7%
- Spread cost
- 40%
If you put in $100
You get 1041.7 shares at 9.6¢ each.
YES wins: $1041.67 back, a profit of $941.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $625.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $1566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.6¢
- Implied chance
- 97.6%
- Return if right
- 2.5%
- Spread cost
- 61%
If you put in $100
You get 102.5 shares at 97.6¢ each.
NO wins: $102.46 back, a profit of $2.46. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.92 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.38.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ilhan Omar questions whether Trump administration has used ICE to ‘surveil’ criticsThe Guardian · 9h ago
- Trump administration has revoked over 175,000 visas: US State DepartmentAl Jazeera · 11h ago
- SpaceX Stock Has Plunged 34%. Elon Musk's "Secret Master Plan" Points to What Could Come Next.Yahoo Finance · 14h ago
- Trump administration revokes more than 175,000 visasThe Hill · 14h ago
- US State Department has yanked more than 175k visas under Trump administration so farFox News · 16h ago
- Trump administration confronts frustrations over concerning U.S. economy dataCBS News · 17h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.