Will Elon Musk post about $LAPTOP by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.5¢
- Implied chance
- 1.5%
- Return if right
- 6566.7%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 6666.7 shares at 1.5¢ each.
YES wins: $6666.67 back, a profit of $6566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $740.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $7307.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.8¢
- Implied chance
- 98.8%
- Return if right
- 1.2%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 101.2 shares at 98.8¢ each.
NO wins: $101.21 back, a profit of $1.21. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.37.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 23, 11:16 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersHeadlines are matched on the names in “Will Elon Musk post about $LAPTOP by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified person posts a qualifying textual reference to Hunter Biden's Laptop memecoin ($LAPTOP) on their accounts listed below between the creation of this market and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The relevant accounts are: Donald Trump: X - @realDonaldTrump; Truth Social - @realDonaldTrump Elon Musk: X - @elonmusk Donald Trump Jr.: X - @DonaldJTrumpJr; Truth Social- @DonaldJTrumpJr Eric Trump: X - @EricTrump; Truth Social - @EricTrump Changpeng Zhao (CZ): X- @cz_binance Mike Winkelmann (Beeple): X - @beeple To qualify, a post's text must clearly refer to Hunter Biden's Laptop memecoin through language such as "Laptop Coin", "Laptop Token", "$Laptop", "Hunter Biden's New Coin", or an equivalently clear reference to the token. The word "laptop" alone, without context that clearly identifies the token, will not qualify. References solely to Hunter Biden's physical laptop, the Hunter Biden laptop controversy, its contents, related investigations, or any associated political events will not alone qualify. For the purposes of this market, all text posted by such accounts in main feed posts, quote posts, and reply posts counts toward a "Yes" resolution, but text within quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution only if a qualifying reference appears in text within the content (e.g., "$LAPTOP" spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify; a reference appearing only within an animated .gif or video will not). Words spoken aloud in videos, livestreams, or audio content will not count toward a "Yes" resolution; only posted text qualifies. Posts published from an account during a period in which the account is verifiably compromised or hacked, as confirmed by the account owner or the platform, do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be X & Truth Social, specifically the account pages for the listed accounts.